Oddevold 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oddevold at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oddevold and Ostersunds FK meet at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Oddevold (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's home record at Rimnersvallen: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Oddevold's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Oddevold 2W, Ostersunds FK 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 3–1 with Oddevold winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 56% versus Ostersunds FK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 56% | Ostersunds FK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.89 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 1.007 / defence 1.058 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.653 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.175. Data: 57 Oddevold games / 57 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 63% | Draw 22% | Ostersunds FK 15%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Ostersunds FK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Oddevold (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 70% | Ostersunds FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 63% | Draw 22% | Ostersunds FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Oddevold 1.89 / Ostersunds FK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 1.007 / def 1.058 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.653 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ostersunds FK xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Oddevold 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 63% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oddevold and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Oddevold 2W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Oddevold and Ostersunds FK in?
Oddevold (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oddevold's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.65x) against Oddevold's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.50
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.70
0.81
Ostersunds FK xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
2%
43.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.81 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oddevold's recent record stands at 21W 19D 17L from 57 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 24L across 57 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Oddevold against 1.18 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oddevold have managed 10W 9D 9L from 28 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 4W 7D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oddevold come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oddevold are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.14 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 21W 19D 17L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Oddevold's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.39 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oddevold have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Oddevold
1
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Ostersunds FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oddevold 1-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Ostersunds FK?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 64%, Ostersunds FK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Oddevold) and 36% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Oddevold's recent matches and 39% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oddevold vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Oddevold's recent games and 36% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oddevold's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 28, as Oddevold and Ostersunds FK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.89 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.81 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oddevold fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 63% | Draw 22% | Ostersunds FK 15%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 56%, Ostersunds FK 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.44 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.