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Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Oddevold 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Oddevold 0-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.64 xG and Orgryte IS 2.00 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oddevold fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.90 / defence 1.29 against Orgryte IS attack 1.17 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 32% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 46%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 64%, Orgryte IS 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.41 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights