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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out Orebro SK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oddevold beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 1.26 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Orebro SK attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 40% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 34%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Orebro SK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.20 PPG, Orebro SK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights