Oddevold vs Norrby IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Norrby IF travel to Rimnersvallen to take on Oddevold. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 July 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rimnersvallen, Oddevold have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Norrby IF have gone 1W 6D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oddevold 1.30 PPG, Norrby IF 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oddevold have won 1, Norrby IF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2026, ended 2–0 with Oddevold winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oddevold trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Norrby IF trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 78% and Norrby IF 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 72% | Norrby IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.52 xG and Norrby IF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.996 / defence 1.105 | Norrby IF attack 0.828 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.411. Data: 46 Oddevold games / 16 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 42% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Norrby IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 70% | Norrby IF 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 42% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Oddevold 1.52 / Norrby IF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.996 / def 1.105 | Norrby IF attack 0.828 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Norrby IF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Norrby IF kick off?
Oddevold vs Norrby IF is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
Where is Oddevold vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Norrby IF part of?
Oddevold vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 42% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Oddevold and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Oddevold and Norrby IF in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Oddevold vs Norrby IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oddevold's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.94
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.81
1.29
Norrby IF xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.29 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 5W 7D 6L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF's form line: 4W 10D 4L from 18 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.22 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
On the road, Norrby IF have gone 1W 6D 2L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.39 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Norrby IF in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 4W 10D 4L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Norrby IF away?
Oddevold's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.00 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Oddevold
0
Draws
0
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Norrby IF?
From 1 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 1, Norrby IF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Norrby IF 0-2 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Norrby IF?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Oddevold at 78%, Norrby IF at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Oddevold) and 33% (Norrby IF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Oddevold's games and 78% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Oddevold's recent games and 33% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.