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Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Oddevold 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat Oddevold 1-2 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.50 xG and Landskrona BoIS 2.35 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.87 / defence 1.43 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.24 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 24% | Draw 20% | Landskrona BoIS 56%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Landskrona BoIS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights