Oddevold 2-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Oddevold (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Oddevold face IK brage.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 29 as Oddevold welcome IK brage to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oddevold have posted 5W 2D 3L at Rimnersvallen — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rimnersvallen.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Oddevold carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Oddevold: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for IK brage, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 4–3 with Oddevold winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Oddevold and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IK brage in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 59% and IK brage 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 55% | IK brage 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 2.49 xG and IK brage 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 1.350 / defence 0.887 | IK brage attack 0.848 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.335. Oddevold carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Oddevold games / 58 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 69% | Draw 19% | IK brage 12%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | IK brage 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Oddevold (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 50% | IK brage 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 69% | Draw 19% | IK brage 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 59% | xG Oddevold 2.49 / IK brage 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 1.350 / def 0.887 | IK brage attack 0.848 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.00
IK brage xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs IK brage kick off?
Oddevold vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs IK brage?
Oddevold 2 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Oddevold vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs IK brage part of?
Oddevold vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 69% chance of winning, IK brage a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Oddevold and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and IK brage?
Record (5 meetings): Oddevold 4W | Draws 1 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Oddevold and IK brage in?
Oddevold (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. IK brage (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (1.35) and IK brage's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.27
12%
8.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Oddevold xG
Total xG
3.49
1.00
IK brage xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
8.15
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
8%
12.05
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
1%
98.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Oddevold and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.00 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs IK brage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oddevold come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 18D 16L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.16 PPG from 58 outings (17W 16D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.55 PPG, IK brage on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oddevold's home form reads 12W 7D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.66 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 66%.
Defensively: Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and IK brage in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 24W 18D 16L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while IK brage have gone 17W 16D 25L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or IK brage away?
Oddevold's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.48 PPG; IK brage away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Oddevold or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IK brage in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oddevold and IK brage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2025, when Oddevold won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Oddevold
1
Draws
0
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 5, IK brage have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Oddevold 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and IK brage?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 66%, IK brage 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Oddevold and 59% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; IK brage in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Oddevold's games and 52% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Oddevold's matches and 59% of IK brage's.
Do Oddevold and IK brage tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, IK brage in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out IK brage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat IK brage 2-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 2.49 xG and IK brage 1.00 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against IK brage attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 69% | Draw 19% | IK brage 12%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 55%, IK brage 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.55 PPG, IK brage 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.