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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Oddevold run riot with a 4-0 hammering of IK brage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oddevold beat IK brage 4-0 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.27 xG and IK brage 2.13 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.94 / defence 1.24 against IK brage attack 1.41 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 22% | Draw 22% | IK brage 56%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Oddevold win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 57%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

IK brage's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.45 PPG, IK brage 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights