Oddevold 1-4 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Helsingborg at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oddevold — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Helsingborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Oddevold carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Oddevold have won 1, Helsingborg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Oddevold winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 56% versus Helsingborg 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 56% | Helsingborg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.46 xG and Helsingborg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.910 / defence 0.981 | Helsingborg attack 0.895 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.208. Data: 59 Oddevold games / 59 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 46% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 27%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Helsingborg 3.70. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Oddevold 60% | Helsingborg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 46% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Oddevold 1.46 / Helsingborg 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.910 / def 0.981 | Helsingborg attack 0.895 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Helsingborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Helsingborg kick off?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Oddevold 1 - 4 Helsingborg.
Where is Oddevold vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Helsingborg part of?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 46% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Oddevold and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
Record (3 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are Oddevold and Helsingborg in?
Oddevold (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (0.91) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.64
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.52
1.06
Helsingborg xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.06 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 21W 21D 17L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 23W 16D 20L from 59 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.42 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (10W 10D 9L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 12W 6D 11L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.34 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 21W 21D 17L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 23W 16D 20L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Helsingborg away?
Helsingborg's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.38 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oddevold and Helsingborg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Helsingborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oddevold
2
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Helsingborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Oddevold 3-1 Helsingborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 62%, Helsingborg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Oddevold and 59% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 34%; Helsingborg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Oddevold's recent matches and 38% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oddevold vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Oddevold's matches and 59% of Helsingborg's.
Do Oddevold and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Oddevold 1-4 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.46 xG and Helsingborg 1.06 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Helsingborg outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Helsingborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 46% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 27%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 56%, Helsingborg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.42 PPG, Helsingborg 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.