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Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Oddevold 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Oddevold 1-2 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 0.95 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.04 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.77 / defence 0.80, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oddevold 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 37%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.20 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights