Norrby IF 2-1 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ljungskile SK make the trip to Borås Arena to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Norrby IF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.45 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.960 / defence 1.224 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.925 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.461. Data: 8 Norrby IF games / 8 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 34% | Draw 24% | Ljungskile SK 43%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Ljungskile SK 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ljungskile SK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 34% | Draw 24% | Ljungskile SK 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Norrby IF 1.45 / Ljungskile SK 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.960 / def 1.224 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.925 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Ljungskile SK xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Norrby IF 2 - 1 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 34% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Norrby IF and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Ljungskile SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Ljungskile SK in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D. Norrby IF home split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Norrby IF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ljungskile SK's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ljungskile SK's attack (0.93x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
34%
2.96
24%
4.22
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
3.10
1.65
Ljungskile SK xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.65 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Ljungskile SK?
From 1 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Norrby IF 2-1 Ljungskile SK.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Ljungskile SK?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat Ljungskile SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Ljungskile SK 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.45 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.65 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 34% | Draw 24% | Ljungskile SK 43%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Norrby IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.