Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Norrby IF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's home record at : 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Norrby IF 1.30 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Norrby IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Norrby IF, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Norrby IF 65% and Landskrona BoIS 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 44% | Landskrona BoIS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.25 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.012 / defence 1.135 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.951 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Data: 21 Norrby IF games / 51 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 32% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 39%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Landskrona BoIS 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 70% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 32% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Norrby IF 1.25 / Landskrona BoIS 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.012 / def 1.135 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.951 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Landskrona BoIS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 32% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 3 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (1.01) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.50
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.40
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.40 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Norrby IF come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 12D 6L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norrby IF on 1.17 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Norrby IF's home form reads 4W 5D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.30 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 5W 12D 6L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 8D 7L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.55 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Norrby IF's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
3
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 73%, Landskrona BoIS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Norrby IF) and 46% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Norrby IF's games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Norrby IF's recent games and 46% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.