Norrby IF 0-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Varnamo make the trip to Borås Arena to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Norrby IF (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Borås Arena, Norrby IF have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Norrby IF are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, IFK Varnamo are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IFK Varnamo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Norrby IF 2W, IFK Varnamo 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Norrby IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Norrby IF 63% and IFK Varnamo 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 50% | IFK Varnamo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.36 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.886 / defence 1.239 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.030 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.335. Data: 28 Norrby IF games / 28 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 29% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 44%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Varnamo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Norrby IF dominate the H2H record, yet IFK Varnamo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 60% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 29% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Norrby IF 1.36 / IFK Varnamo 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.886 / def 1.239 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.030 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.70
IFK Varnamo xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Norrby IF 0 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 29% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (3 meetings): Norrby IF 2W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Norrby IF's attack at 0.89x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (1.03x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
29%
3.42
27%
3.76
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
3.06
1.70
IFK Varnamo xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
5%
18.82
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.70 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 6W 13D 11L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 9W 5D 16L from 30 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Norrby IF against 1.07 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 7W 0D 8L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Norrby IF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.20 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 9W 5D 16L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.33 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 0-3 on 31 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norrby IF
1
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Norrby IF 0-3 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 67%, IFK Varnamo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Norrby IF and 73% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Norrby IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Norrby IF's games and 60% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Norrby IF's matches and 73% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Varnamo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Norrby IF 0-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.36 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.70 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.24 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 29% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 44%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 50%, IFK Varnamo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.03 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.