Norrby IF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 20 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Norrby IF have gone 2W 3D 2L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Norrby IF's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Norrby IF lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 69% versus GIF Sundsvall 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 44% | GIF Sundsvall 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.28 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.740 / defence 1.043 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.707 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.466. Norrby IF's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Norrby IF games / 44 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 41% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 31%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | GIF Sundsvall 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 57% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 41% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Norrby IF 1.28 / GIF Sundsvall 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.740 / def 1.043 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.707 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.08
GIF Sundsvall xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 July 2026.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Norrby IF 3 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
What competition is Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 41% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.71x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.60
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.36
1.08
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.08 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 3W 9D 4L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 3W 2D 11L from 16 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Norrby IF are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Norrby IF are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 0.81 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 3W 9D 4L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 2D 11L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.29 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 1-4 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 3 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Norrby IF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Norrby IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 57%, GIF Sundsvall 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Norrby IF) and 29% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF have failed to score in 43% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 29% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Norrby IF's recent games and 29% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norrby IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-1 at , Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.28 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.08 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.74 / defence 1.04 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 41% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 31%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 44%, GIF Sundsvall 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Norrby IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.