Ljungskile SK 2-1 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Ljungskile SK versus Sandviken in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 26 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ljungskile SK (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ljungskile SK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sandviken have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Ljungskile SK, 1.60 for Sandviken — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ljungskile SK 0W, Sandviken 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Sandviken winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ljungskile SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ljungskile SK 60% and Sandviken 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 47% | Sandviken 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.50 xG and Sandviken 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.924 / defence 1.133 | Sandviken attack 0.808 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.467. Data: 15 Ljungskile SK games / 45 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 41% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 34%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Sandviken 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ljungskile SK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ljungskile SK 57% | Sandviken 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 41% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.50 / Sandviken 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.924 / def 1.133 | Sandviken attack 0.808 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sandviken xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken?
Ljungskile SK 2 - 1 Sandviken.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 41% chance of winning, Sandviken a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Sandviken?
Record (1 meetings): Ljungskile SK 0W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 1W.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Sandviken in?
Ljungskile SK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Sandviken (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ljungskile SK's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sandviken's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.81x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.00
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.84
1.34
Sandviken xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.34 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Ljungskile SK have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 5W 4D 6L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandviken's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Ljungskile SK against 1.27 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ljungskile SK have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Sandviken have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ljungskile SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ljungskile SK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sandviken in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ljungskile SK and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Ljungskile SK have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ljungskile SK at home or Sandviken away?
Ljungskile SK's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ljungskile SK at home: 1.43 PPG; Sandviken away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Sandviken?
From 2 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 1, Sandviken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Ljungskile SK 2-1 Sandviken.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ljungskile SK 57%, Sandviken 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ljungskile SK) and 71% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ljungskile SK have failed to score in 29% of games; Sandviken in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ljungskile SK play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ljungskile SK's games and 57% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Ljungskile SK's matches and 71% of Sandviken's.
Do Ljungskile SK and Sandviken tend to score early?
Ljungskile SK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ljungskile SK edge out Sandviken 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ljungskile SK beat Sandviken 2-1 at , Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.50 xG and Sandviken 1.34 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Sandviken attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 41% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 34%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ljungskile SK 47%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ljungskile SK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ljungskile SK 1.27 PPG, Sandviken 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ljungskile SK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.