Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Ljungskile SK welcome Landskrona BoIS to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ljungskile SK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ljungskile SK's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ljungskile SK 1.30 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ljungskile SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ljungskile SK, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ljungskile SK in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ljungskile SK 57% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 48% | Landskrona BoIS 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 0.99 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.796 / defence 1.199 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.951 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Ljungskile SK's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Ljungskile SK games / 51 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 24% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 47%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Landskrona BoIS 2.13. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Ljungskile SK 60% | Landskrona BoIS 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 24% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ljungskile SK 0.99 / Landskrona BoIS 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.796 / def 1.199 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.951 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Landskrona BoIS xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 24% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Ljungskile SK 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Ljungskile SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ljungskile SK's attack at 0.80x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Ljungskile SK's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
24%
4.18
29%
3.47
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.46
1.48
Landskrona BoIS xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
18.30
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.48 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ljungskile SK come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 6D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ljungskile SK on 1.14 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ljungskile SK's home form reads 4W 1D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.29 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ljungskile SK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ljungskile SK at home: 1.18 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Ljungskile SK.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ljungskile SK 54%, Landskrona BoIS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ljungskile SK) and 46% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Ljungskile SK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ljungskile SK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ljungskile SK's recent matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ljungskile SK's recent games and 46% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ljungskile SK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Ljungskile SK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.