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Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights