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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Umeå FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Umeå FC to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Umeå FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Umeå FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Landskrona BoIS have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Umeå FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Umeå FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Umeå FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 54% versus Umeå FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 54% | Umeå FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.90 xG and Umeå FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.890 / defence 0.954 | Umeå FC attack 0.803 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.135. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Landskrona BoIS games / 26 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 22% | Umeå FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Umeå FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Umeå FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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