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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Umeå FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Landskrona BoIS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Umeå FC beat Landskrona BoIS 1-3 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.90 xG and Umeå FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Umeå FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Umeå FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.35, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 61% | Draw 22% | Umeå FC 16%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Umeå FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, Umeå FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Umeå FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.46. Form was overturned, with Umeå FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights