Landskrona BoIS 4-3 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.50 for Ostersunds FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ostersunds FK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Ostersunds FK have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Landskrona BoIS's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ostersunds FK have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 62% and Ostersunds FK 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Ostersunds FK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.61 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.226 / defence 0.929 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.836 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.094. Data: 43 Landskrona BoIS games / 43 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 20%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Ostersunds FK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.61 / Ostersunds FK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.226 / def 0.929 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.836 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ostersunds FK xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Landskrona BoIS 4 - 3 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 55% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
Record (4 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 3W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.84x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.99
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.46
0.85
Ostersunds FK xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
25.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.85 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 17D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (18W 22D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.27 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (6W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.70 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
5
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 73%, Ostersunds FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Landskrona BoIS) and 37% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 53% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Ostersunds FK 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Ostersunds FK 4-3 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.61 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.85 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 20%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Ostersunds FK 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.