Landskrona BoIS 4-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 24 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 3W, Orgryte IS 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 62% versus Orgryte IS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Orgryte IS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.72 xG and Orgryte IS 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.079 / defence 0.748 | Orgryte IS attack 1.032 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.024. Landskrona BoIS's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Landskrona BoIS games / 42 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Draw 24% | Orgryte IS 17%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Orgryte IS 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Orgryte IS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Draw 24% | Orgryte IS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.72 / Orgryte IS 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.079 / def 0.748 | Orgryte IS attack 1.032 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Orgryte IS xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 June 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Landskrona BoIS 4 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 60% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS?
Record (6 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.03x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.25
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.51
0.79
Orgryte IS xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
32.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.79 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 17D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (19W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.25 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.28 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Orgryte IS away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.70 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
4
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 73%, Orgryte IS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Landskrona BoIS) and 50% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 53% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Orgryte IS 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Orgryte IS 4-3 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.72 xG and Orgryte IS 0.79 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.08 / defence 0.75 against Orgryte IS attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 60% | Draw 24% | Orgryte IS 17%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.