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Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Orebro SK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat Orebro SK 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.87 xG and Orebro SK 1.56 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Orebro SK attack 1.01 / defence 1.35, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 45% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 32%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Orebro SK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights