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Stalemate at Landskrona BoIS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 24, as Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.02 xG and Kalmar FF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Kalmar FF attack 0.81 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 34%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 55%, Kalmar FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.49 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights