Landskrona BoIS 0-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Helsingborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Landskrona Idrottsplats. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Helsingborg — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Helsingborg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Helsingborg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 58% | Helsingborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 0.98 xG and Helsingborg 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.913 / defence 1.118 | Helsingborg attack 1.276 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.204. Helsingborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Landskrona BoIS games / 53 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 21% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 54%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Helsingborg 1.85. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Helsingborg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 21% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Landskrona BoIS 0.98 / Helsingborg 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.913 / def 1.118 | Helsingborg attack 1.276 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Helsingborg xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 21% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
Record (5 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
21%
4.83
25%
3.95
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.70
1.72
Helsingborg xG
4.83
21%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
26.91
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.72 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 53 games, going 23W 12D 18L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.32 PPG from 53 outings (18W 16D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.53 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.17 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 18W 16D 19L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Helsingborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.65 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Helsingborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 54%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Landskrona BoIS) and 50% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Helsingborg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 50% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Landskrona BoIS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 0.98 xG and Helsingborg 1.72 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Helsingborg attack 1.28 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 21% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 54%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, Helsingborg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.53 PPG, Helsingborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.