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Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against GIF Sundsvall attack 1.06 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 43%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, GIF Sundsvall 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.52 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights