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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.

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Analysis

Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 26 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Falkenbergs FF's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Falkenbergs FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Form favours the hosts. Landskrona BoIS's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Falkenbergs FF's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Landskrona BoIS lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Falkenbergs FF winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.86 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.134 / defence 1.073 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.985 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.270. Data: 39 Landskrona BoIS games / 9 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Falkenbergs FF 3.57. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

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