Landskrona BoIS 3-1 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Dalkurd FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Dalkurd FF (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Dalkurd FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Dalkurd FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 65% versus Dalkurd FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 54% | Dalkurd FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.06 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.069 / defence 1.047 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.655 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.305. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Landskrona BoIS games / 24 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 64% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 15%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Dalkurd FF 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 90% | Dalkurd FF 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 64% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.06 / Dalkurd FF 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.069 / def 1.047 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.655 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Dalkurd FF xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 1 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 64% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | Dalkurd FF 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.07) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalkurd FF's attack (0.66x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.91
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.95
0.89
Dalkurd FF xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
51.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.89 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 9W 8D 9L from 26 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalkurd FF, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 15L across 26 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 0.96 for Dalkurd FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 6W 4D 2L from 12 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dalkurd FF's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.04 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 8D 9L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 7W 4D 15L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Dalkurd FF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.83 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
0
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Dalkurd FF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Landskrona BoIS 3-1 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 92%, Dalkurd FF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Landskrona BoIS) and 42% (Dalkurd FF).
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 92% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 33% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 42% of Dalkurd FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Dalkurd FF 3-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.06 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.89 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 64% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 15%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, Dalkurd FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.35 PPG, Dalkurd FF 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.