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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Utsikten 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Utsikten 1-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.68 xG and Utsikten 1.56 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.13 / defence 1.08 against Utsikten attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 41% | Draw 24% | Utsikten 36%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 60%, Utsikten 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kalmar FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Utsikten's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.29 PPG, Utsikten 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights