🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.13 xG and Trelleborg 0.79 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Trelleborg attack 0.72 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 26%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Trelleborg 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights