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Dominant Kalmar FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sandviken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Sandviken 4-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.77 xG and Sandviken 0.91 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandviken landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 57% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 19%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 54%, Sandviken 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kalmar FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Sandviken's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.44 PPG, Sandviken 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights