🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Oddevold 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Oddevold 3-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.11 xG and Oddevold 0.88 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oddevold outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Oddevold attack 0.92 / defence 0.62, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 40% | Draw 32% | Oddevold 28%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 55%, Oddevold 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kalmar FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Oddevold's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.52 PPG, Oddevold 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Oddevold (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights