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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Landskrona BoIS 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Landskrona BoIS 3-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.66 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.23 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.77 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.20 / defence 1.17, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 48% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 28%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Landskrona BoIS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights