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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kalmar FF and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Kalmar FF and IK brage drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.51 xG and IK brage 1.52 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against IK brage attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 24% | IK brage 38%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 59%, IK brage 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kalmar FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

IK brage's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG, IK brage 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights