Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utsikten make the trip to Stadsparksvallen to face Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Utsikten are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jonkopings Sodra lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Utsikten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jonkopings Sodra — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Utsikten — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jonkopings Sodra 72% and Utsikten 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 63% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.15 xG and Utsikten 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.176 / defence 1.052 | Utsikten attack 1.132 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.101. Utsikten's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Jonkopings Sodra games / 46 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 31% | Draw 29% | Utsikten 39%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Utsikten 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 80% | Utsikten 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 31% | Draw 29% | Utsikten 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.15 / Utsikten 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.176 / def 1.052 | Utsikten attack 1.132 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Utsikten xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 31% chance of winning, Utsikten a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten?
Record (3 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 2W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Utsikten (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.13x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
31%
3.18
29%
3.40
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.46
1.31
Utsikten xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.31 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Jonkopings Sodra have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 15W 15D 16L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten's form line: 21W 10D 15L from 46 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 1.59 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Utsikten have gone 11W 3D 9L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.52 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 15D 16L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.48 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Utsikten have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jonkopings Sodra won 5-2 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, Utsikten have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Utsikten.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 74%, Utsikten 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 48% (Utsikten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 48% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 48% of Utsikten's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Utsikten tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.15 xG and Utsikten 1.31 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.18 / defence 1.05 against Utsikten attack 1.13 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 31% | Draw 29% | Utsikten 39%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 63%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.30 PPG, Utsikten 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.