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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IK brage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vasteras SK FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Vasteras SK FK 3-1 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.44 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.92 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasteras SK FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 28% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 48%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 42%, Vasteras SK FK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.38 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights