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Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Trelleborg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Trelleborg 2-1 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.05 xG and Trelleborg 1.30 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against Trelleborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.35, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 54% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 23%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 44%, Trelleborg 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Trelleborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.40 PPG, Trelleborg 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights