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Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat IK brage 1-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.60 xG and Sandviken 1.32 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 44% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 32%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 33%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights