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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Orgryte IS 3-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.38 xG and Orgryte IS 1.52 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Orgryte IS attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 34% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 41%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Orgryte IS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights