🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat IK brage 4-5.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orebro SK beat IK brage 4-5 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.79 xG and Orebro SK 1.29 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK outscored their 1.29 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.04 / defence 1.20 against Orebro SK attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 49% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 27%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Orebro SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 46%, Orebro SK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Orebro SK's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights