IK brage 2-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Norrby IF meet at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
IK brage (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, IK brage have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Norrby IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for IK brage, 1 for Norrby IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IK brage — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Norrby IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 57% versus Norrby IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 57% | Norrby IF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.62 xG and Norrby IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.149 / defence 0.792 | Norrby IF attack 0.885 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.370. IK brage's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 IK brage games / 39 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 21%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Norrby IF 4.76. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 50% | Norrby IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG IK brage 1.62 / Norrby IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.149 / def 0.792 | Norrby IF attack 0.885 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: IK brage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Norrby IF xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Norrby IF kick off?
IK brage vs Norrby IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Norrby IF?
IK brage 2 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is IK brage vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Norrby IF part of?
IK brage vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 52% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IK brage and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Norrby IF?
Record (2 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are IK brage and Norrby IF in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.15) and Norrby IF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.89x) against IK brage's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.75
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.58
0.96
Norrby IF xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
4%
23.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for IK brage and 0.96 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IK brage's recent record stands at 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 8L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for IK brage against 1.60 for Norrby IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 6W 4D 5L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Norrby IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.47 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have IK brage or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IK brage
1
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Norrby IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Norrby IF 0-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Norrby IF?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 47%, Norrby IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IK brage) and 47% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Norrby IF in 33%; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IK brage's recent matches and 53% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of IK brage's recent games and 47% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Norrby IF tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Norrby IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Norrby IF 2-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.62 xG and Norrby IF 0.96 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.15 / defence 0.79 against Norrby IF attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 52% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 21%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 57%, Norrby IF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.30 PPG, Norrby IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.