IK brage vs Norrby IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Norrby IF meet at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IK brage (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Domnarvsvallen, IK brage have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Norrby IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for IK brage, 1 for Norrby IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IK brage — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Norrby IF — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 68% and Norrby IF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 76% | Norrby IF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.68 xG and Norrby IF 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.171 / defence 1.360 | Norrby IF attack 0.609 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.350. Data: 52 IK brage games / 23 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 50% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 25%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Norrby IF 4.00. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 80% | Norrby IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 50% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG IK brage 1.68 / Norrby IF 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.171 / def 1.360 | Norrby IF attack 0.609 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: IK brage (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Norrby IF xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Norrby IF kick off?
IK brage vs Norrby IF is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Domnarvsvallen.
Where is IK brage vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Norrby IF part of?
IK brage vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 50% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IK brage and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Norrby IF?
Record (5 meetings): IK brage 3W | Draws 1 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are IK brage and Norrby IF in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.17) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.61x) against IK brage's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 52/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.00
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.80
1.12
Norrby IF xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are IK brage and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for IK brage and 1.12 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IK brage's recent record stands at 8W 6D 11L from 25 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 5W 12D 8L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for IK brage against 1.08 for Norrby IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 1W 7D 5L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.24 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Norrby IF in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 5W 12D 8L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Norrby IF away?
IK brage's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.23 PPG; Norrby IF away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IK brage
1
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Norrby IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Norrby IF 0-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Norrby IF?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for IK brage, 62% for Norrby IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 85% (IK brage) and 31% (Norrby IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 69% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Norrby IF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of IK brage's games and 62% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of IK brage's matches and 31% of Norrby IF's.
Do IK brage and Norrby IF tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.