IK brage 2-2 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ljungskile SK make the trip to Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 5W 1D 4L at Domnarvsvallen — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.70 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.116 / defence 1.283 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.874 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.436. Data: 40 IK brage games / 10 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 23% | Ljungskile SK 37%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Ljungskile SK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 23% | Ljungskile SK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG IK brage 1.70 / Ljungskile SK 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.116 / def 1.283 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.874 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: IK brage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Ljungskile SK xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
IK brage vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Ljungskile SK?
IK brage 2 - 2 Ljungskile SK.
Where is IK brage vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Ljungskile SK part of?
IK brage vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 40% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both IK brage and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ljungskile SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Ljungskile SK in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. IK brage home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IK brage's attack at 1.12x the league average against Ljungskile SK's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ljungskile SK's attack (0.87x) against IK brage's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
40%
2.47
23%
4.36
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.31
1.61
Ljungskile SK xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for IK brage and 1.61 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 9 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
IK brage
1
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ljungskile SK?
From 1 meetings on record, IK brage have won 0, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 9 June 2026, when IK brage 2-2 Ljungskile SK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IK brage and Ljungskile SK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Ljungskile SK finished level at 2-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.70 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.61 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 40% | Draw 23% | Ljungskile SK 37%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.