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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IK brage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat IK brage 1-3 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.06 xG and Kalmar FF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.04 / defence 1.39 against Kalmar FF attack 0.72 / defence 0.66, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 32% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 38%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 47%, Kalmar FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IK brage's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 1.33 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights