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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Falkenbergs FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IK brage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Falkenbergs FF beat IK brage 0-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.40 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Falkenbergs FF outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it IK brage 46% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 27%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Falkenbergs FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 50%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IK brage 0.50 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Falkenbergs FF scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights