IFK Varnamo 0-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 25 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Finnvedsvallen, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
IK brage arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: IFK Varnamo 1W, IK brage 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2026, ended 1–5 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Varnamo 62% and IK brage 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IFK Varnamo 64% | IK brage 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG and IK brage 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.818 / defence 1.194 | IK brage attack 1.002 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.486. Data: 15 IFK Varnamo games / 45 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 23% | IK brage 47%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | IK brage 2.13. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 50% | IK brage 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 23% | IK brage 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.38 / IK brage 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.818 / def 1.194 | IK brage attack 1.002 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.78
IK brage xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IK brage kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 0 IK brage.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IK brage part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 30% chance of winning, IK brage a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | IK brage 2W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IK brage in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.82) and IK brage's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.00x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
30%
3.34
23%
4.33
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
3.16
1.78
IK brage xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
5%
19.78
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.78 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 6W 8D 31L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 15W 12D 18L from 45 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IK brage are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Varnamo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 0.82 PPG from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 9W 5D 8L from 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.76 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; IK brage in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and IK brage in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 6W 8D 31L in their last 45 games (0.58 PPG), while IK brage have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 0.82 PPG; IK brage away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-1 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IK brage?
From 4 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, IK brage have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when IFK Varnamo 0-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 64%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for IFK Varnamo and 59% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of IFK Varnamo's games and 50% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Varnamo vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of IFK Varnamo's matches and 59% of IK brage's.
Do IFK Varnamo and IK brage tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, IK brage in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IFK Varnamo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 16, as IFK Varnamo and IK brage drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG and IK brage 1.78 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IK brage landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against IK brage attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 23% | IK brage 47%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 64%, IK brage 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.