IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours IFK Norrkoping (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Norrkoping face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Norrkoping host GIF Sundsvall at Norrkopings Idrottspark in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Norrkopings Idrottspark this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Norrkopings Idrottspark. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Norrkopings Idrottspark this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
IFK Norrkoping are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 2.30 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. IFK Norrkoping's 30% rate and GIF Sundsvall's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
IFK Norrkoping hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for GIF Sundsvall, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–1 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IFK Norrkoping and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 49% versus GIF Sundsvall 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 53% | GIF Sundsvall 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 2.18 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.165 / defence 0.718 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.592 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing IFK Norrkoping's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IFK Norrkoping's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 IFK Norrkoping games / 51 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 74% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 7%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.35 | Draw 5.26 | GIF Sundsvall 14.29. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (74%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 30% | GIF Sundsvall 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Norrkopings Idrottspark • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 74% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 38% | xG IFK Norrkoping 2.18 / GIF Sundsvall 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.165 / def 0.718 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.592 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
38%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 74% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 7% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 3W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Norrkoping's attack rating (1.17) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 3-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
74%
1.35
19%
5.37
7%
14.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
3 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.73
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
14.08
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
11%
8.87
Win to Nil
43%
2.33
1%
124.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.55 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Norrkoping's recent record stands at 22W 8D 21L from 51 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 28L across 51 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Norrkoping by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IFK Norrkoping have managed 11W 3D 11L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 8W 2D 15L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.00 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 22W 8D 21L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 28L in their last 51 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.44 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
IFK Norrkoping go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when IFK Norrkoping won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall?
From 3 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 40%, GIF Sundsvall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (IFK Norrkoping) and 48% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping have failed to score in 32% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.