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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helsingborg beat Umeå FC 5-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.48 xG and Umeå FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Umeå FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 49% | Draw 26% | Umeå FC 25%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights