Helsingborg 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Orgryte IS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympia. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Orgryte IS are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Helsingborg, 2 for Orgryte IS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2025, ended 2–0 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Orgryte IS trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 40% versus Orgryte IS 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | Orgryte IS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.21 xG and Orgryte IS 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.862 / defence 0.844 | Orgryte IS attack 1.321 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.172. Orgryte IS have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Helsingborg games / 52 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 33% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 38%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Orgryte IS 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Helsingborg dominate the H2H record, yet Orgryte IS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 30% | Orgryte IS 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 33% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Helsingborg 1.21 / Orgryte IS 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.862 / def 0.844 | Orgryte IS attack 1.321 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Orgryte IS xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 33% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Helsingborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (7 meetings): Helsingborg 4W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 2W.
What form are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.86x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.46
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.51
1.31
Orgryte IS xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.31 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 15D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.71 PPG from 52 outings (25W 14D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.44 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.52 points per game from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.92 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 67%.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 20W 15D 17L in their last 52 games (1.44 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 25W 14D 13L in their last 52 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.40 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2021, when Helsingborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Helsingborg 0-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 40%, Orgryte IS 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Helsingborg) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Helsingborg's games and 72% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Helsingborg's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.21 xG and Orgryte IS 1.31 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Orgryte IS attack 1.32 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 33% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 38%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, Orgryte IS 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.44 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.