Helsingborg 1-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 16 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helsingborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Helsingborg's home record at Olympia: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Helsingborg, 1.20 for Orebro SK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Orebro SK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Helsingborg 1W, Orebro SK 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 4–1 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 52% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 45% | Orebro SK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.07 xG and Orebro SK 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.746 / defence 0.990 | Orebro SK attack 0.847 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.048. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Helsingborg games / 41 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 29%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Orebro SK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 60% | Orebro SK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Helsingborg 1.07 / Orebro SK 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.746 / def 0.990 | Orebro SK attack 0.847 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Orebro SK xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
Helsingborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Orebro SK?
Helsingborg 1 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Helsingborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Orebro SK part of?
Helsingborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 39% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Helsingborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orebro SK?
Record (4 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Orebro SK in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.75x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.85x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.21
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
1.95
0.88
Orebro SK xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.88 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 12W 14D 34L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.18 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 12W 14D 34L in their last 60 games (0.83 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Orebro SK away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.00 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 26 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Helsingborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 4-1 on 3 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orebro SK?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 5, Orebro SK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2026, when Orebro SK 1-2 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Orebro SK?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, Orebro SK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Helsingborg) and 67% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 37% of games; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 53% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Helsingborg's recent games and 67% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Orebro SK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Orebro SK 1-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.07 xG and Orebro SK 0.88 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Orebro SK attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 39% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 29%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 45%, Orebro SK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 0.83 PPG, Orebro SK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.