Helsingborg 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Helsingborg) versus 1.20 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helsingborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 45% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.00 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.787 / defence 1.047 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.343 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.001. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Helsingborg games / 39 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 26% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 46%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 2.17. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 60% | Landskrona BoIS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 26% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Helsingborg 1.00 / Landskrona BoIS 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.787 / def 1.047 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.343 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 26% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): Helsingborg 2W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.58
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.41
1.41
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
6%
15.61
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.41 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 12W 14D 34L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 22W 17D 21L from 60 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 12W 14D 34L in their last 60 games (0.83 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.00 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Helsingborg) and 57% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 37% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Helsingborg's recent games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.00 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.41 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.34 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 26% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 46%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 45%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.