Helsingborg 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IK brage make the trip to Olympia to face Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 5W 2D 3L at Olympia — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Helsingborg are significantly better at Olympia than their overall form suggests.
IK brage (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Helsingborg, 1 for IK brage and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Helsingborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 48% versus IK brage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 48% | IK brage 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.10 xG and IK brage 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.003 / defence 1.267 | IK brage attack 0.933 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.277. Data: 36 Helsingborg games / 36 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 28% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.13. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 40% | IK brage 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 28% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Helsingborg 1.10 / IK brage 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.003 / def 1.267 | IK brage attack 0.933 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.51
IK brage xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs IK brage kick off?
Helsingborg vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Helsingborg 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Helsingborg vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IK brage part of?
Helsingborg vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 28% chance of winning, IK brage a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Helsingborg and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Record (6 meetings): Helsingborg 3W | Draws 2 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and IK brage in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 1.00x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.93x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
28%
3.60
26%
3.90
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.51
IK brage xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.51 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 17D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (23W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.37 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Helsingborg's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.17 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and IK brage in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IK brage away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.40 PPG; IK brage away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IK brage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 5, IK brage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Helsingborg 2-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, IK brage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Helsingborg) and 33% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; IK brage in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 40% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 33% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IK brage tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, IK brage in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helsingborg defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat IK brage 1-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.10 xG and IK brage 1.51 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.27 against IK brage attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 28% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 48%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.33 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.